Following a strong 8-6 week in Week 10 we head into Week 11 as some teams are finally starting to emerge as the league’s best. Season Total: 76-73-1.
Drake Maye for MVP? I went against the Patriots last week as they traveled to Tampa Bay to square off against Baker off of a bye. Their defense really proved itself as they limited Tampa with extra time to prepare. Maye has looked great all year, his deep ball is a huge weapon. But doing this with a skill position group that doesn’t jump off the screen is also really starting to stand out to me. The Patriots are not just fighting for the AFC East crown but possibly the one seed and a huge part of that falls on the shoulders of the second-year man under center.
THE BEARS ARE: A playoff team? The NFC North is showing to be possibly the deepest division in the league and right now if the season ended the Bears would finish third in their division but would find themselves in the playoffs. A lot of their wins have looked ugly and ugly against bad teams. The dichotomy of the Caleb Williams experience is still going but the pendulum is starting to have less sway as he seemingly grows more comfortable under the new Ben Johnson system.
We have the match up and possibly game of the year this week in Los Angeles versus Seattle. Both teams are just so well coached, are scheming up offenses and personnel groups that are leaving many opposing defensive coordinators scratching their heads looking at scoreboards that don’t bode well in their favor. This game seems like it will come down to which defense can adjust to the other teams heavy offensive personnel groups. The Seahawks run a ton of nickel on the defensive side of the ball. Can the 3 tight end looks of the Rams make them change or punish the smaller size? Can the Rams secondary slow down Smith-Njigba when they’ve been having troubles slowing down opposing top receivers? Sunday will tell us and we are lucky enough to get a second match up later this year.
New York (J) at New England -12.5
New England -12.5
QB: Advantage New England, Coaching: Advantage New England and Homefield: New England. Trifecta for the Thursday Night rules. It’s a huge line and a division game but I’m just not taking this Jets team, that though did win last week against the Browns. Did put up 14 points on special teams plays. Vrabel has this Patriots team looking better and better every week. I’m just going to ride with the Patriots momentum.
Washington at Miami -2.5
Miami -2.5
Last Europe game of the year by way of Madrid! I don’t have much hope for either of these teams but Miami outside of Thursday Night against the Ravens has some momentum going their way. The one thing I’ve always found true with this Miami team under McDaniel and Tua is if they can stay clean in the pocket and on-time they can put up points. This Washington defense has looked bad on defense the last few weeks. I think Miami just put up more points and wins this game in Spain.
Carolina at Atlanta -3.5
Atlanta -3.5
Talk about two teams that week to week you have no idea what you’re getting from them. When it comes to two teams like that, in the same division and no team with a glaring strength against another team’s weakness I’m just going to ride with the home team. Give me the Falcons but seriously don’t bet real money on either of these teams this year.
Tampa Bay at Buffalo -5.5
Buffalo -5.5
Buffalo crapped the bed last week in an embarrassing loss against the Dolphins in a game in which they were 9.5 point favorites. It just feels like Buffalo is one of those good teams that continues to play down to lower competition and play up to better competition. I think they get back on track in Buffalo and beat a Tampa team that is still just so banged up on the offensive side of the ball.
Houston at Tennessee +6.5
Houston -6.5
The bye week I don’t think will do much for Cam Ward and the Titans offense against this very good Texans defense. Houston needs to win to keep pace and have a chance of making the playoffs. I just think this is a game the Titans will struggle to score in, remember Houston shut out Tennessee in Week 4. I honestly love that this line is under 7. Give me Houston in a blow out.
Chicago at Minnesota -3
Minnesota -3
Both of these teams are a bit of a wild card week to week. I just like the Minnesota defense a little more than I like Chicago’s. Minnesota was able to have a comeback win against the Bears earlier this year. I still find Caleb and the Chicago offense to be too inconsistent and I think this Vikings defense slows them down and turns them over with some creative pressure drawn up by Brian Flores.
Green Bay at New York (G) +7
Green Bay -7
Green Bay is coming off back-to-back losses as a favorite at home so why am I taking them here? No Jaxson Dart, no Cam Skattebo and no Malik Nabers. It’s looking like we will get Jameis Winston under center for the Giants and even though I’m taking the Packers I’ll probably be rooting for the Giants to be eating a W.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh -5.5
Pittsburgh -5.5
I might be done taking Cincinnati this year. The defense is just so bad and can’t hold onto leads. Pittsburgh at home is still something I’m just going to feel better taking even if the team has holes which this team does. I think the Steelers get revenge from their earlier loss against the Bengals this year and cover the spread.
Seattle at Los Angeles (R) -3
Los Angeles -3
We talked about earlier this being the match up of the week. I am rolling with the Rams here for a few reasons. The Seahawks are banged up on defense. The Seahawks have been mauling teams the last few weeks on the defensive side of the ball which has covered up that their defense is missing a lot of pieces or returning pieces off injury. No Reed, no Love. Jobe Questionable, Ernest Jones Questionable. It makes me worry about this unit against McVay. Seattle always seems to struggle on the road against the Rams. I’m going to roll with LA.
San Francisco at Arizona +3
Arizona +3
It feels like the San Francisco injuries are finally catching up to them. The Cardinals got embarrassed last week in Seattle but like many teams were saying going into that game. All other Cardinals games have been decided by one score. I don’t think SF can get the pressure on the quarterback like Seattle did. I think Arizona wins this one.
Baltimore at Cleveland +7.5
Baltimore -7.5
I’m going to keep it simple: the Browns are going to struggle to score 13 points. Even with a decent defense the empty possessions on offense will compound and you have to put up points to beat Lamar. I think the Ravens take it to Cleveland this week and climb their way back into the playoff picture.
Kansas City at Denver +3.5
Kansas City -3.5
You should know by now my Thursday Night Theory. But one other theory or rule I play every year gets to take place in Week 11. The rule is: just take Andy Reid off the bye. Reid in his career is 22-4 off of the bye. Aside from that I just don’t trust the Denver offense right now. I think the Chiefs take this one on the road.
Detroit at Philadelphia -2.5
Philadelphia -2.5
I know the Lions put up points and beat up on Washington last week. But I think it’s a real red flag that they turned the play calling back to Dan Campbell. I think this Eagles defense showed last week that they are a good unit and can slow down the Lions rushing attack.
Dallas at Las Vegas +3.5
Las Vegas +3.5
Neither of these teams are any good. Neither of these teams seem to have a bright future. And neither of these owners have any patience. That all being said, Dallas doesn’t feel like a team that should be 3.5 point favorites on the road against anyone. I’ll take the points, the home team and the Raiders off a bye.
We head into Week 10 after a chaotic trade deadline and a whacky Week 9. Season total for the year is 68-67-1 and we look to get back on track after a 6-8 week last week.
What we learned from Week 9:
The Bengals defense is arguably one of the worst we’ve ever seen. Back-to-back weeks we’ve seen this team just absolutely throw away leads and flat out lose these games for Cincinnati while Joe Flacco and the offense have been putting up numbers in droves. They sit at 3-6 and basically wrote themselves out of any playoff hopes.
The Jets throw in the towel. I can’t remember an NFL team being this big of sellers at the trade deadline ever. The Jets move off of Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner a few hours before the deadline and get back 3 first round picks and a second round pick in doing so. For a team that is going nowhere this year and next year I honestly like the moves. You get two second rounders for a corner that is good but not a complete game changer like a Pat Surtain, Champ Bailey or Darrelle Revis. The Quinnen Williams package also feels strong as you basically got 90% of the return the Cowboys got for Micah Parsons that you get for Williams.
Buffalo held Mahomes in check. The Chiefs were redhot going into Buffalo this last week and the Bills and their defense shut the Kansas City offense down, keeping Mahomes under 50% completion percentage for the first time in his career. It’s going to be a slug fest between a New England team, who have a cupcake schedule, for the AFC East crown.
Las Vegas at Denver -9.5
Denver -9.5
QB: Advantage Broncos, Head Coach: Advantage Broncos, Home Field: Broncos. A three-for-three trifecta for the Thursday Night theory. The line is high but this Raiders team was closer to trading Maxx Crosby at the deadline than they are to beating a good defense. I think the Broncos turnover the Raiders a few times and are able to cover a high spread.
Atlanta vs Indianapolis -5.5
Indianapolis -5.5
Indianapolis crapped the bed a little last week in Pittsburgh and now find themselves across the Atlantic Ocean facing off against a Falcons team that has looked pretty bad outside of one week against the Bills this year. I think Indy gets back on track with their new addition of Sauce Gardner and holds the inconsistent Atlanta offense in check.
Cleveland at New York (J) +2.5
Cleveland -2.5
I’m taking Cleveland as a 2.5 road favorite? Yikes. Line moved from Jets -1.5 to Jets +2.5 after the trades on Tuesday. Don’t love the new line but I think this Browns defense after a bye week just holds this Jets team to under 13 points. Does a pissed off Jets team prove me wrong?
New Orleans at Carolina -5.5
Carolina -5.5
New Orleans found themselves selling some at the deadline as they traded Rashid Shaheed for a fourth and fifth rounder to Seattle. This Panthers team has strung together some wins and I like them a lot more at home. Tyler Shough showed to be possibly even worse of an option than Spencer Rattler at quarterback after the Saints were only able to scrounge up 10 points last week against the Rams. There is a race to the bottom and the Saints look to be a front runner while the Panthers are fighting for a playoff spot.
New England at Tampa Bay -2.5
Tampa Bay -2.5
Tampa off a bye and looking to get Bucky Irving back makes me like the Buccaneers at home this week. New England could potentially take the top off of this Tampa defense but I think the Buccaneers find a way to win this one and with the extra rest at a time they really needed it cover the spread against a good New England team playing a game against a team with a winning record for the first time in over a month.
Baltimore at Minnesota +4.5
Minnesota +4.5
Baltimore thrashed Miami last Thursday Night in Lamar’s return and the Vikings took control against a Detroit team on the road on Sunday. I’m still a little weary of JJ McCarthy but I think people are forgetting just how bad this Ravens defense has been all season. With the weapons of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson running patterns in an indoor setting I think Minnesota probably wins this game and I’m getting 4.5 points with them in Minnesota. SKOL!
Buffalo at Miami +9.5
Buffalo -9.5
Buffalo failed to cover a large Thursday Night spread at home against the Dolphins but I think they get it done here. A full week of prep for the Bills and a Dolphins team that we know is going to have a new head coach next year just makes me believe the Bills put it on the Dolphins. I think we hear some hometown boos in a divisional blowout down in South Beach this week.
New York (G) at Chicago -3.5
Chicago -3.5
Chicago squeezed out a win in Cincinnati after their defense allowed over 40 points to Joe Flacco. The Bears looked shaky in their last two games on the road but I think right the ship at home against a Giants team that lets face it is just not good on offense and missing their best two play makers in Nabers and Skattebo. I think Chicago can hang some points against the Giants and keep Dart under wraps on the other side.
Jacksonville at Houston -1.5
Houston -1.5
It looks like Davis Mills will get the start in Houston this week but a return of CJ Stroud may change this line so be sure to follow us on X here at https://x.com/ThePSSports for any changes to this game. I just like the Texans at home here. Their defense is still really good and I think this Jaguars team is too reliant on turnovers.
Arizona at Seattle -6.5
Seattle -6.5
Jacoby Brissett was named the starter for a Cardinals team that has looked better the last few weeks. A strong showing against Dallas leads this team back up to Seattle to face off for the second time this season. I think Seattle is just rolling right now and with the addition of Shaheed I think this offense could explode against a Cardinals defense. It is worth noting Seattle may be without starting middle linebacker Ernest Jones in this one but even if he is out I don’t think this Cardinals running game can take advantage.
Detroit at Washington +8.5
Detroit -8.5
Washington will be back with Mariota as the starter after Jayden Daniels suffered a bad elbow injury, luckily to his non throwing arm, on Sunday Night. I think this again is a recipe for disaster for Washington. You’ve all but eliminated yourselves from the playoffs, you are riddled with injuries and the Lions just came off a loss and need to keep pace in the NFC North. I think the Lions run all over the Commanders and cover this one.
Los Angeles (R) at San Francisco +3.5
Los Angeles (R) -3.5
I know San Francisco got the better of Los Angeles earlier this season. I know I keep going against the 49ers and they have covered in most of their games. But I think McVay gets back on track against Shanahan here, as he has dominated the head-to-head match up. I really like this Rams team and I think they are one of the best in the league, I think the 49ers defense gets schemed up in this one and LA even the season series.
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles (C) -3
Los Angeles (C) -3
I don’t like Pittsburgh on the road here. Los Angeles slept through a win in Tennessee and now has a Steelers team that was able to turn Indianapolis over 6 times last Sunday in a much needed win. I don’t like this Chargers team without Joe Alt but I think they get a little bit of help with the trade for Trevor Penning to fill in at tackle. Don’t forget this Steelers defense has given up a lot of points and if they aren’t able to get the turnovers, which they haven’t done on the road, I don’t think they can win this one.
Philadelphia at Green Bay -2.5
Philadelphia +2.5
Talk about a team you never know what you’re getting from in Green Bay. I’m going to keep this one simple. I’m getting Philly, who I think is the better team, off a bye week and I’m getting 2.5 points with them. Green Bay could go out there and look like the best team in the league or they could go out and get beat 24-10. I’m just going to trust the Eagles here a little more.
Week 9 is here and we look to stay hot after a 9-5 Week 8 and 13-7 in Super 5 the last 4 weeks. Moving us to 62-59-1 on the season. Heading into Week 9 we see a lot of super high lines as favorites have been the winning side of bets the last few weeks. It seems as though Vegas is trying to neutralize teasers this week with lines getting up to around 2 touch downs in a few games.
What did we learn from Week 8?
Pittsburgh may be in trouble. I was still riding the Steelers going into this game. Rodgers has actually looked pretty good these last few weeks and looked fine against a good Packers defense. It’s the Pittsburgh defense that is struggling right now. Giving up over 30 points in 4 of their 7 games. Aside from Dillion Gabriel’s first start and the Patriots having two goal to go turn overs this defense has been giving points up in droves. Even at 2-5 this Steelers team is letting the Ravens linger.
The Patriots are looking like a team that can make a real run this year. Drake Maye is even starting to turn heads in the MVP conversation. This is one of the examples of how much a good coach matters. Last year the Patriots had one of the worst head coaches in football, a rookie QB and looked destined to spend multiple years drafting high. 7 games into Mike Vrabel’s tenure in New England they look like they can win the AFC East. Vrabel is showing again that he can raise the floor of a team and now he has a quarterback that can blow the roof off.
An AFC West toss up! With Kansas City now looking like the Chiefs of old the surging Broncos and Chargers are going to have to keep putting up strong performances to keep the Chiefs away from another division title. Last week we spoke about the stacked NFC West. Is the AFC West even more loaded? Poor Raiders.
Baltimore at Miami +7.5
Baltimore -7.5
Okay so Lamar is actually back in this one? If you follow us on X.com at @ThePSSports you would have seen Lamar did sit out another week and the line changed. We still rode with the Ravens even with Snoop Huntley under center. Thursday night theory. Lamar over Tua, Harbaugh over McDaniel and Dolphins are home. Two of three go to the Ravens and I’d much rather ride with Lamar than Tua even after the Dolphins went on the road and kicked the crap out of Atlanta.
San Francisco at New York (G) +2.5
New York (G) +2.5
I went back and forth on this one. But I think the Giants are a good home team. Even with the loss of Skattebo I think this Giants team can take advantage of a depleted 49ers defense and that this Giants defensive front can get to Mac Jones and neutralize McCaffery out of the backfield.
Los Angeles (C) at Tennessee +8.5
Los Angeles (C) -8.5
The Titans just look lost to me. The Titans lone win came by way of an absolute blunder by Arizona and outside of the season opener have lost by two possessions or more in every other game. This Chargers team is coming off extra rest after a dominant win against the Vikings last week and the Chargers offense looks so much better with Joe Alt on the field. I think the Chargers dominate this one.
Minnesota at Detroit -8.5
Detroit -8.5
The return of JJ McCarthy and on the road in Detroit. I don’t think that is a recipe for success. My only real concern is the line is fairly high for a divisional game. But I’m willing to eat the points here. If I were to actually be gambling I’d be looking to tease this line with another and getting the line of this down to -2.5 Detroit.
Atlanta at New England -5.5
New England -5.5
Loved New England last week, love them again here. I was surprised the line was under a touchdown in all honesty. The Falcons have looked awful since beating the Bills at home. The Patriots are rolling and Drake Maye is looking like the best deep ball thrower in the league. Back-to-back home games for the Patriots and back-to-back spots in the Super 5 here.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh +3
Indianapolis -3
We started this article talking about how bad the Steelers defense has been. Green Bay was a 3.5 point favorite in Pittsburgh last week. I don’t quite understand how the Colts are only favored by 3 here. Indianapolis has looked like the best team in the league all year. I don’t see the Steelers slowing Jonathan Taylor down at all in this one. I think the Colts win this one comfortably and questions start to stir about the future of this Steelers team.
Denver at Houston -1.5
Houston -1.5
One of the tougher games again for me to pick. I like that Houston is playing back-to-back home games here and I think their defense is starting to find a groove. The Broncos I just feel like I don’t know what I’m getting from them week to week. Last week the Broncos looked like world beaters and put the beat down on the Cowboys but have also struggled to score points and beat the Titans and Jets this year. I’m going to roll with the home team with some momentum on the defensive side of the ball.
Chicago at Cincinnati +3
Cincinnati +3
What was looking like a comfortable Bengals victory quickly turned south as the Bengals blew one to the Jets at home. The offense was grooving under Joe Flacco but that defense just had no answers again. I like the back-to-back home games for the Bengals against the back-to-back road games for Chicago. This Bears team just doesn’t scare me on offense and I think have a bit of a fraudulent winning record that gets checked here.
Carolina at Green Bay -13.5
Carolina +13.5
This line just feels too high. Bryce Young comes back in this one after a terrible and possible last outing from Andy Dalton last week. This Panthers team is one I usually don’t like to take on the road but this Green Bay team has also struggled to cover large lines this year against Cleveland and Cincinnati. I think the Packers win but 13.5 just feels like too many.
New Orleans at Los Angeles (R) -14.5
Los Angeles -14.5
A huge line and I don’t love that it jumped over two touchdowns but I’m getting Sean McVay off a bye against a New Orleans team with a new QB under center. This Rams team is one that sometimes falls asleep on offense and cruises through games but I think this New Orleans team is flat out bad and struggles to even put up double digits in this one. The scary thing with large lines is one turnover, special teams play or one big play can cover for a team alone.
Jacksonville at Las Vegas +3
Las Vegas +3
Look, the Raiders looked awful in their last game against Kansas City. A bye couldn’t have been better timed for them. Jacksonville’s record still feels a little fraudulent due to the turnover margin they got in the first few weeks of the season. I think Geno and the Raiders bounce back some against a Jaguars team that has struggled the last few weeks.
Kansas City at Buffalo +1.5
Buffalo +1.5
Game of the week and I’m going to roll with the Bills. Both teams looked very strong against inferior competition last week. I see these teams as dead even and I’m getting points with the home team. I think we see a shoot out and another Bills Chiefs game come down to the wire but give me Josh Allen at home in this one.
Seattle at Washington +3
Seattle -3
Seattle under Mike MacDonald is 9-1 on the road as the head coach of the Seahawks. But this game is just one of those games where all the momentum is going towards the Seahawks. Seattle is coming off a bye and they get Devon Witherspoon back from injury. While the Commanders are super banged up and coming off a short week after receiving a beatdown from Kansas City. I would love teasing the Lions game with this game. Bring the Seahawks to +3 and Detroit to -2.5.
Arizona at Dallas -2.5
Dallas -2.5
Dallas got thrashed on the road last week. Their defense is one of the weaker in the league but I trust them at home to put up some real points and even against a bad defense I don’t know how Arizona can keep up. I think Dallas treads some water for the season and beats the Cardinals at home.
Coming in after every team was able to play one game but below we’ll have a breakdown of each team’s win projections, picks for playoffs, awards and much more!
Going into this season this is what we are most excited to see!
Luka and a full season in Los Angeles. It’s been about 8 months since the Luka trade occurred and it still makes no sense. Luka this offseason looks to come into the season in better shape then maybe his last few seasons after a strong performance at Eurobasket this summer. With the addition of De’Andre Ayton can Luka get the most out of the former #1 pick? What does LeBron have left in the tank, starting the season sitting out due to a Sciatica issue. LA and the Lakers already feel like they have given Doncic the keys to it all. I think Luka is primed to lead this Lakers team to a playoff run even in a completely loaded Western Conference.
Does Boston tank? Boston issued a firesale this offseason due to it’s super high salary cap number putting them in the second apron. Being in that second apron and without Jayson Tatum for most if not all of the season was something ownership and the front office clearly wanted to get out of. But with no Tatum, Holiday, Porzingis, Kornet or Horford this team is much thinner especially in the rebounding and size department. I assume this team will shoot even more three’s than they already do at a high rate and see if the offense and shooting of mainly Brown, Pritchard, White and newly acquired Simons can lift them to a winning season. But if they get out to a slow start do they move off of Simons or others for assets and race to the bottom to try and pick up a high pick in what looks like another strong 2026 draft class?
The Battle of the West! The Western Conference is absolutely loaded. It feels like Oklahoma City’s to lose after coming off a 68 win championship season, this young squad kept its core together and looks poised to make another deep run. Houston and Denver sure seem like they’ll have something to say about it. The size of Houston and the addition of Kevin Durant will pose problems for many but a lack of a true point guard and the aging Durant do leave room for concerns. In Denver, Jokic looks primed to make another run as the best player in the league. I love their offseason moves in the addition of Bruce Brown and essentially a swap of Cameron Johnson for Michael Porter Jr. The west provides even additional depth with both the Lakers and Clippers looking strong, Dallas and San Antonio will be improved, experienced Minnesota and Golden State teams. It’s likely that to not be in the play-in tournament you have to win 50 games. Health, age, depth and roster improvement will be fun to watch.
San Antonio Spurs
43.5
Over
I love the Spurs over this year. The only hesitation I think you can have for this is if Wembanyama gets hurt. I think they shut him down on the extra cautious side last year. They knew they weren’t winning it all and why mess with something like that. Fox is starting the year hurt but I think Wemby is poised to make a jump to First or Second Team All NBA tier of talent in the league. A lot of gritty young guys ready to get after it. This is also a team with the assets to make a trade to improve mid-season. I’m a hard over and this will be one of my 5 locks.
Dallas Mavericks
38.5
Over
Much like the Spurs bet, the biggest bet here is how many games are you getting out of Anthony Davis? I trust this team to stay healthy enough and with the jumpstart of Rookie of The Year favorite Cooper Flagg I just see this team being at least a .500 team. If Flagg makes an immediate impact like I think he will, if Kyrie is healthy this will be a tough out in the playoffs. Love their size with Gafford, Lively, Davis, Washington and Flagg. I’m a strong over on the Mav’s.
Houston Rockets
52.5
Over
I’m going over on all three teams out of Texas. Similarly to the Mavericks I love the size of the Rockets. Their lack of a true point guard is my one concern but I think they have the luxury of having a big like Sengun that you can run an offense around. I think Amen Thompson makes a leap and can run some pick and roll and initiate offense as well and now they have arguably the best shot creator in Durant off the wing. I love their size, coaching and athleticism.
New Orleans Pelicans
30.5
Under
This is a bet the other way on health. I just don’t trust Zion to stay healthy and unlike the Mavericks, Houston and even Spurs they don’t have the depth to weather him not in the lineup. They are already starting the season without Dejounte Murray. If Zion plays a full season they probably go over this 30.5 win total easily. My bet is just the other way on that.
Memphis Grizzlies
39.5
Under
Memphis was really bad down the stretch of last season. Already starting the season without Jaren Jackson Jr I worry about this team. Ja has just not looked the same to me after these injuries and suspensions. I just am not high on a team with so much up in the air. If they were in the East (which location wise would make a whole lot of sense) I think I’d go over but in a loaded West I just don’t trust this Memphis team.
Oklahoma City Thunder
62.5 Over
I’ll keep this one simple. They have the best guard in the league, Chet I feel is primed to play more games and make a leap, Jalen Williams will miss a few games to start the season but that is not a long term injury I’m concerned about and they are just so deep and young. I’m really high on Cason Wallace making a leap and a potential Sixth Man of The Year candidate. Great coaching, great front office and a great roster. 62.5 is a lot but I think they’re just as good as they were last year.
Denver Nuggets
53.5
Over
I’m just all in on Jokic and I think their additions of Cam Johnson and Bruce Brown provide a little more reinforcements and depth to a team that really needed it last year. The Nuggets can seemingly sometimes coast in regular seasons but with Murray healthy and a few years removed from their championship I think Denver is the second best team in the league and ready to go out there and give the Thunder a run.
Minnesota Timberwolves
48.5
Over
That just felt too low to me. Anthony Edwards is one of the best 7 or so players in the league. They have an identity as a team and I again love their length and size on the interior and the wing. My really only concern is at the point guard position. With Conley really getting up there in age and not a strong rookie campaign from Rob Dillingham I worry about this team getting stagnant on offense, especially in the half court. But this just looks like a 50 win team to me.
Portland Trail Blazers
35.5 Under
I just am not seeing it here. The case for them going over is Sharpe, Henderson and Avdija making a leap and I’m not betting on that in a division with the Thunder, Nuggets and Timberwolves. I see it more likely they move Holiday this season and get some assets back and go for a high draft pick than them winning over 35 games.
Utah Jazz
19.5
Under
I’m just not seeing it here. This feels like an ultra tank season and another weird NBA Draft fix job incoming with BYU star AJ Dybansta being primed to be a top-3 pick in the draft. Again I think it’s more likely they trade Lauri Markkanen and pick up more assets than they even sniff 20 wins. They’re young and well coached but this division and conference are just too good.
Los Angeles Lakers
45.5
Under
This feels like an interim season for the Lakers. I don’t think they’re bad. I think they’re slightly under. I just think the Lebron injury will linger this season and they really hand the keys over to Luka after this year. Luka is the tipping point here. He might be so good that he and Reeves drag Rui, Ayton and the gang to 46 wins but I think the rest of the roster is just not very good. I’ll go under slightly here but I think Luka could make this look really dumb.
Los Angeles Clippers
49.5
Under
This just feels like too high of a number. Again I don’t think the Clippers will be bad I just see them as a mid-40 win team and not a 50+ win team. With a team this old my first concern is of course health, especially that of Kawhi Leonard. Harden can steer the ship only so much and he’s not the same player he was 5 years ago. I just think this is a good not great team and in this Western Conference that is a 40 something win team.
Phoenix Suns
30.5
Under
So they have no point guards, no good bigs and the entire offense feels like it relies on Devin Booker to do everything? That just seems like a recipe for a terrible season. Booker is great but him being the everything of your offense is not enough. He probably has to play out of position all season and I just think they struggle with these teams like Houston, San Antonio, Minnesota, etc that have size.
Sacramento Kings
32.5
Under
It’s a hard under for me on this one and this will be one of our locks. There is nothing I’m excited about if I’m a Kings fan. If this was 2017 I would like this team. But at this stage Westbrook, Lavine and Derozan can’t be the bulk of your offense. Sabonis I think raises the floor of this team but I think the Kings are sellers at the deadline and they look more like the Kings that missed the playoffs for over a decade than they have the last couple of seasons.
Golden State Warriors
47.5
Over
The age and health are the biggest concerns I have here. If this team is mostly healthy and they can get 70+ games from Steph, Jimmy and Draymond this is probably the fourth best team in the West. The experience, pedigree and basketball IQ of this Warriors team is at the top of the league. Could be the last big run this Warriors team has and I think they get the job done and win 50+ games.
Boston Celtics
41.5
Under
Going under here as I think they decide to blow this team up even further mid-season to fight for a high pick and build for next year. With Tatum and Brown under long term deals, when Tatum is back this team turns into a contender instantly again in the East. I think they take it easy with Tatum’s return and the current team as it stands is probably on the outside looking in and I don’t see any reason why they would upgrade a team that doesn’t have a real chance of winning it all.
New York Knicks
53.5
Over
I think the Knicks are probably poised to have the best regular season out of anyone in the East. They have a great starting five and I think if Mitchell Robinson can stay healthy they can be a better team defensively in the regular season than last. With Boston taking a step back their division is weak and I think they cruise through the East and compete for the #1 seed.
Toronto Raptors
39.5
Under
I just don’t like the sum of the parts. I think in the right situation everyone in their starting five are good NBA players and fulfill needs for a basketball team but I just don’t like how it plays together. They feel stuck with this roster and its contracts and I just don’t see how they make a big leap up. I think they are fighting for the last play-in seed but ultimately fall short.
Brooklyn Nets
18.5 Under
Yikes. Besides Utah this may be the worst roster in the league. You have a team whose offense depends on Cam Thomas and Michael Porter Jr. Even in a weak Eastern Conference I think this team struggles to score if those guys aren’t in heat check mode. Their defense will be bad, it just feels like this franchise has already punted on this season.
Philadelphia 76ers
42.5
Under
This is much like the New Orleans Pelicans pick. I’m just going to bet the side of Joel Embiid and to a lesser extent Paul George not being able to stay on the basketball court. If Embiid plays 55+ games than maybe I will eat my words but I’m not holding out hope. For basketball purposes I hope I’m wrong because when Embiid is right he is one of the most talented centers to ever play but I really have concerns about his knees.
Milwaukee Bucks
43.5
Over
This one will also be a lock and probably my favorite over pick in the East. I’m going to bank on one of the 3 best players in the league winning 44 games in a bad conference every time. Giannis has stayed durable and I think this team’s role players have improved. Unless they get to a slow start and Giannis demands a trade out I just think this team will easily hit the over on 43.5.
Cleveland Cavaliers
56.5
Under
Still a really good team but I don’t think they take the regular season as seriously as they did last year. I think this is a team that will finish top-3 in the East but I don’t think they will get to 57 wins this year. I worry about their health, especially with Garland and Ball.
Indiana Pacers
36.5
Over
Yes they lost Haliburton for the year, yes Myles Turner is gone. But I just think this teams style of play and tutelage under Rick Carlisle is better than 36.5 wins. I expect this Pacers team to continue to push the pace and I think some of these guys like Nembhard, Mathurin and Nesmith are ready to take on the role as a number two for this team and run and gun with Siakim. I don’t think they’re poised for a high seed or playoff run but I do feel they are a lot closer to .500 than this 36.5 win projection.
Detroit Pistons
46.5
Under
I just think there is some regression here. The Pistons were in a ton of close games last year and a few won by Malik Beasley’s three point shooting late in games. Well Beasley is out and I think some of those close games end up going the other way. Cade alone is good enough to get them to 40 wins in the East but I think 47 wins for them is a little high.
Chicago Bulls
33.5
Over
Look this Bulls team is going to Bulls it up and be a play in team with around 40 wins. There is nothing spectacular about this team. There isn’t even much of a bright future but this franchise and ownership just seem content with winning around 40 games and being in no-man’s land more than any team I’ve ever seen.
Orlando Magic
50.5
Over
I really like the addition of Desmond Bane to this team. They needed some scoring from the guard positions and someone that can shoot from the outside badly and I think Bane does that and keeps that gritty Orlando vibe. If this team stays healthy, which they didn’t do last year, I think they are fighting with Cleveland and New York for the #1 seed.
Miami Heat
37.5
Under
I hate betting an under against Erik Spoelstra. He is the best coach in the NBA, I don’t think that is up for debate but this team lacks shot creation really badly, especially with the absence of Tyler Herro to start the season. The Heat feel like a team in limbo right now and I think this is a season they start to hit the reset button.
Charlotte Hornets
28.5
Over
I think if this team stay healthy, which is a big if, that they are really talented on the offensive side of the ball. I think Brandon Miller is poised to take a leap and be a fringe All-Star level player and if Lamelo Ball can stay on the floor this team is going to run and put up points. I think the Hornets still have a long way to go to be any sort of playoff contender but I think the talent on this roster brings them up to the mid-30 win range and fighting for a play-in seed.
Washington Wizards
20.5
Under
I say this positively. I think this is the last year of Washington being in ultra-tank mode. I think they are starting to build something positive in the nation’s capital. All that being said, they are relying on so many young guys to perform and create offense for this team. I just don’t think they are ready yet. It’s an under for me but I do see the light at the end of the tunnel for them.
Atlanta Hawks
42.5
Under
I’m sorry I don’t get the Atlanta hype train this year. This team has a slew of players that have failed to stay healthy. Trae Young will put up numbers but his outside shooting efficiency really drags this team down in my opinion. I think the Hawks are an okay team and are close to this win total but they just seem like 43 wins is just out of reach.
Locks
Milwaukee Bucks Over 43.5 San Antonio Spurs Over 43.5 Oklahoma City Thunder Over 62.5 Sacramento Kings Under 32.5 Phoenix Suns Under 30.5
Week 7 was another week of still trying to figure out who is actually good in the league. If you follow us on X at https://x.com/ThePSSports, you would have also seen we swapped our pick in the Cleveland–Miami game to the Browns at -2.5, and glad we did. We find ourselves heading into Week 8 sitting at 53-54-1 for our season total and 18-17 in the Super 5 (10-5 in Super 5 the last three weeks!).
So, what were the key takeaways from Week 7?
Kansas City is looking back on track. From the season preview on, I was adamant this team would look different when they got Rashee Rice back from injury and suspension, and they sure looked like the explosive offense they’ve missed since Rice went down with a knee injury early last season. Sitting at 4-3, they currently sit on the outside looking in, as they currently don’t have the tiebreakers against Jacksonville and Los Angeles. But in a weaker AFC and the way things are trending, the Chiefs look poised to make another run at the AFC West title, and after being home dogs this season, are back to huge lines in back-to-back weeks.
The NFC West is loaded right now. With the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers all sitting at 5-2, it feels like a slugfest is in store to grab the NFC West crown this year. The 49ers sit with a 3-0 record against the division, but with a plethora of injuries, you still have to pause when taking them seriously as contenders. But the team has looked strong with Mac Jones under center. The Rams put the beatdown on a Jaguars team that feels like their turnover luck has struck midnight after dropping two games without much fight. Stafford currently leads the league in passing touchdowns (17) and is looking as strong as ever. Seattle just played a sloppy game at home against the Texans, and still, there wasn’t really a moment the game ever felt in jeopardy. The Seattle defense looks like one of the best in football, all while missing two Pro Bowl defensive backs in Witherspoon and Love, but looking primed to come back after this week’s bye. Are all three going to make the playoffs?
Minnesota at Los Angeles (C) -3
Los Angeles (C) -3
I’m rolling with the Chargers here. You know the Thursday night theory by now. QB and home field go the way of the Chargers, and coaching is a wash. Like the Chargers here with back-to-back home games, while Minnesota has to travel after a close loss to Philadelphia. I’m not going to sit there and pick Wentz on the road against Herbert when I’m only eating 3 points.
Miami at Atlanta -7
Atlanta -7
Miami and Tua looked like a complete disaster on Sunday in Cleveland. We swapped our pick prior to kickoff due to what was forecasted as nasty weather for their game on Sunday. The bad weather never really showed up, and the Dolphins sure didn’t either. This Atlanta team is so inconsistent; I like betting them at home a LOT more than I do on the road moving forward. This feels like a week we get a coach firing in Miami, and I’m going to ride with the Falcons at home, even though 7 seems like a lot for a team as inconsistent as the Falcons.
Chicago at Baltimore -6.5
Baltimore -6.5
Lamar is back! This is just a total bet on the Ravens being desperate and needing a win, and bringing in a Bears team that, even with a four-game winning streak, is not impressing me. This Ravens team is definitely not as good as we’ve been accustomed to the last few years, even with Lamar under center. I just don’t trust Caleb Williams on the road still, and I think the Ravens, off a bye and with Lamar back, take control of this one.
New York (J) at Cincinnati (-6.5)
Cincinnati -6.5
The Jets may be the worst team in football. I think the Titans can give them a real run for their money, but they looked awful again at home against Carolina. The defense was able to hold Bryce Young and Andy Dalton to 13 points, but the offense couldn’t sniff the end zone with Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor. It’s looking like Tyrod will get the start in Cincinnati this week. I don’t know how the Bengals are sitting here 3-4 and 6.5-point favorites, but I trust Flacco airing it out to Chase and Higgins more than I trust Tyrod to cover this spread.
Buffalo at Carolina +7.5
Buffalo -7.5
The Red Rifle is back under center, as Bryce Young looks like he will be sidelined with an ankle injury. The Bills have looked shaky this year, but I think they got a bye week at the perfect time. The defense is healthier, and they get a restart button and face off against a backup quarterback. I don’t see the Bills not putting up points on this Panthers defense, and I’m sure as hell not going to bet Dalton over Allen.
San Francisco at Houston +1.5
Houston +1.5
This was the hardest game of the week for me to pick. I am going with Houston for a few reasons: I think their defense is actually pretty good and can force turnovers. Mac Jones has looked pretty good filling in for Brock Purdy, and it appears he will start again this week. But I think this defense can take advantage of a poor receiving corps and make it hard for the 49ers to move the ball. I still sit here and wonder what happened to rookie C.J. Stroud, but I’m going to ride with the home team getting 1.5.
Cleveland at New England -7
New England -7
I think this is my favorite bet of the week. I like what I’m seeing from the Patriots right now. Drake Maye is looking like the best deep-ball thrower in the league right now. Myles Garrett said it himself — the Browns’ games feel the same basically every game: the defense shows up, and the offense struggles to move the ball. The Browns were able to take care of the Dolphins at home, but I think this Patriots team shuts down this Browns offense and is able to move the ball down the field enough to cover this 7 points.
New York (G) at Philadelphia -7
Philadelphia -7
Blowing a game in the fashion the Giants did against Denver, I think, can cause a hangover effect into the next week. Philadelphia will be hungry for revenge and is bringing back Brandon Graham. I think momentum plays a huge factor in this one, but I like that the Eagles were able to move the ball through the air last week against Minnesota. I’m rolling with the Eagles this week.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans +5.5
Tampa Bay -5.5
I’ve said it all year — I’m just not going to take the Saints unless something changes with them. Nothing has changed for seven weeks. These NFC South games, especially between Tampa and New Orleans, always seem weird, but I just think Tampa is just a much better football team than the Saints. I’ll eat the points this week and take the Bucs.
Tennessee at Indianapolis -14.5
Indianapolis -14.5
If you would have told me before the season the Colts would be 14.5 favorites in a regular-season game, I would have guessed the other team all came down with scurvy. The Colts have genuinely looked like the best team in football all season. They really are reminding me of last year’s Vikings team, and I’m going to ride with them. Cam Ward looks lost and seems primed to have an awful turnover every game. I think the Colts thump a Titans team who may be looking at having the #1 pick in back-to-back seasons.
Dallas at Denver -3
Dallas +3
I don’t love either of these teams. From an entertainment aspect, I can’t wait to watch this one. Dak and the Cowboys’ offense is genuinely really good; their defense is still such a weak spot right now. Denver can’t seem to put a full good game together. A miraculous comeback against a young Giants team doesn’t inspire much confidence. I had a hard time picking this one, but I think the Cowboys’ offense gets out to an early lead and can hold off this struggling Broncos offense. Side note: I am more on Brandon Aubrey watch — would they trot him out for a 75-yarder in Mile High?
Green Bay at Pittsburgh +3.5
Pittsburgh +3.5
One exercise I do before looking at the lines for the week is guessing my own lines, and this line was one that I felt so off on. I figured Pittsburgh -1.5. I just don’t understand the Packers being that big of favorites on the road. Have you watched them play this year? Scored 6 points at the half against Arizona, almost let the Bengals back into a game, and blew a game to Cleveland. This offense is super inconsistent. The Steelers lost last week, but I really like what I’m seeing from Rodgers. I just think 3.5 is too much for Green Bay to get as a road favorite.
Washington at Kansas City -10.5
Kansas City -10.5
Jayden Daniels looks questionable for this week’s matchup. I’m just going to ride the hot hand in Kansas City and like that I’m getting back-to-back home games for KC and back-to-back road games for Washington. I think Kansas City makes a statement to the rest of the AFC that they are back in full swing.
Was travelling and missed a Week 6 post but posted last week’s picks to our X.com account, which you can follow @ThePSSports. We finished the week 8-7, and that brings us to an even 46-46-1 on the season.
So, what were the key takeaways from Week 6?
I think Baltimore has officially claimed this year’s “season from hell” team. San Francisco sits there with a 4-2 record and, now with the loss of Fred Warner, might want to try and go back-to-back after having a litany of injuries last season, but Baltimore is just in shambles. An offense that, without Lamar, is frankly pitiful at best. You have to think Baltimore may be thinking of throwing in the towel this year and possibly even have to think of trading Derrick Henry. Either way, with the injuries sustained, both of these teams have an uphill battle for the rest of the season.
Is Baker the front-runner for MVP? Now, the schedule will get a lot harder, as four of their next five are at Detroit, home against New England, at Buffalo, and at the Rams. If they can weather that and Baker keeps putting out the numbers and clutch performances, who is there to take it from him? Baker, since going to Tampa, restarted a career that felt like it was destined to be short-lived after his time in Carolina. In very Baker fashion, he has become the guy everyone thought he was coming out of Oklahoma, and, to be frank, I’m loving watching it every week.
The AFC looks like it’s 2014 again! New England, Indianapolis, Denver, Los Angeles (the artist formerly from San Diego), and Pittsburgh all sit as either division leaders or playoff contenders. With only a few teams fighting for the final wild card, barring injury, the AFC playoff picture already seems to be taking shape. Kansas City is, of course, lurking at 3-3 and looking strong after a beatdown of the Lions and the return of Rashee Rice this week. But looking at the standings, I feel like I’m back in high school.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati +5.5
Pittsburgh -5.5
If you’ve read through these posts, you know by now my theory for Thursday night: rate each team in three categories by QB, coach, and home field, in that order. QB and coach—advantage goes to Pittsburgh. The home field obviously belongs to Cincinnati. I’ll go Pittsburgh here in what I think is a game where the Pittsburgh defensive line has a strong edge against a poor Bengals offensive line and a 40-year-old Joe Flacco.
Los Angeles (R) at Jacksonville +3
Jacksonville +3
I will preface this by saying something similar to what I was saying about Arizona to start the year. I’m taking Jacksonville here, but I kind of question if they’re a playoff team still. I’m not entirely writing them off, and I think even after a poor performance against Seattle, the offense has improved from last year. They have the tiebreaker with Kansas City, which may play big at the end of the season, but this team feels like it has this record due to winning the turnover battle, and I just don’t know how sustainable that is. All that being said, with either no Puka Nacua or an injured Puka Nacua, I worry about this Rams offense, which, if you look closer at their games, hasn’t lit the world on fire on the offensive side of the ball. Take away their best pass catcher, and I think this Jacksonville team can win this game—and I’m getting 3 points at home. DUVAAAALLL!
Philadelphia at Minnesota +2.5
Minnesota +2.5
I’m guessing it’s going to be Carson Wentz this week again, but honestly, I’m not seeing a huge difference between him and McCarthy in this one. This is more of a “the Eagles look lost on offense, Jalen Carter is either out or clearly not 100%, and that defense isn’t looking the same without him, and I’m getting Kevin O’Connell off a bye week.” Honestly, the last part of that sentence was the deciding factor for me. Give me the Vikings at home with some points and a bye week to prepare for a Philadelphia team that has not looked right this season.
Miami at Cleveland -3
Miami +3
I worry more about Tua’s health against Myles Garrett and company than the outcome of this football game. All jokes aside, this game comes down to that matchup. Can the offensive line keep Tua upright enough for the Miami offense to score 21 points or more? Cleveland is just not going to put many points on the board this season against anyone. This Miami team is not very good but has at least shown some fight the last few weeks. I get why Cleveland is the favorite at home, but I get the better quarterback and points against Dillion Gabriel.
New England at Tennessee +7
New England -7
We’ll keep it really simple here. A motivated and hot Patriots team against a Titans team that just fired its head coach. I often like to take teams that have a new coach but this Titans team just feels lost and the Patriots and Drake Maye seem to be finding their stride. I think the Pats pummel the Titans this week.
Carolina at New York (J) +1.5
New York +1.5
The Jets are not good, but I think we have a little too much Panther hype going into this one. Here’s my take, and I’m willing to bet it: the Panthers are still not very good on defense and are 0-3 on the road this year. This whole bet is this: “Bryce Young, show me you can win on the road!” That’s it. The Jets are probably the second-worst team in football; they just played in Europe (which, to be fair, UK to NY is only a two-hour longer flight than NY to LA), and there are questions around Justin Fields already. Fields has never won a game where the opposing team has scored more than 21 points. Well, I’m curious if Carolina can score 21 on the road.
New Orleans at Chicago -5.5
Chicago -5.5
Don’t look now, but Chicago is kind of frisky. Look, I’ve said it all year: I’m just not going to take New Orleans, and especially not on the road. The Chicago offense is looking better as the weeks go on, and I don’t think this New Orleans offense scares anyone. It’s a little more points than I’d like when taking the Bears, but there’s no way I’m taking New Orleans on the road this year.
Las Vegas at Kansas City -11.5
Kansas City -11.5
The only hesitation I have is that the line is pretty high. I just don’t see a world where Kansas City loses at home to this Raiders team. I’m interested to see how Rashee Rice looks in his first game back from injury plus his suspension, but in a weird way, that extra six games he sat out might be good for how he looks in his first game back. Kansas City is winning this game, and with how much Geno Smith has been turning the ball over, I think they cover this larger line as well.
Indianapolis vs. Los Angeles (C) -1.5
Indianapolis +1.5
I get they’re home, but did we not just see this Chargers defense give 27 points up to the Dolphins? With no Alt and Slater, this Chargers team is clearly not clicking all the way. Indy has looked like the best team in the AFC all year, and if not for Adonai Mitchell dropping the ball before crossing the goal line against the Rams, this team would probably be undefeated. Sometimes you just have to admit you were wrong. I was wrong about Daniel Jones (Danny Dimes never Indiana Jones). He is really turning around his career that just last season looked to be over. This Colts team just feels a lot like last year’s Vikings team, and until something changes, I’m kind of riding with this team.
New York (G) at Denver -7
Denver -7
Kind of like the Panthers and Bryce Young: “Show me you can win on the road, Jaxson Dart!” Look, the Giants are fun, and they just kicked the crap out of Philadelphia on Thursday Night Football. They also, just two weeks ago, became the only team Spencer Rattler has ever beat. They’re young, they play hard, and their defensive line is elite. But so is this Denver defense. I think Denver makes things hard on the Giants offense and wins this one.
Green Bay at Arizona +6.5
Green Bay -6.5
I have said since picking Arizona the first two weeks: this team isn’t good. Now they get into a tough stretch of their schedule. Kyler is banged up, Marvin Harrison Jr. is banged up. I’m sorry, I just don’t trust this team, and the Green Bay defense looks like it’s getting back on track after that Dallas debacle that resulted in a 40-40 tie.
Washington at Dallas +1.5
Dallas +1.5
Dallas is a tale of two sides of the ball. Their defense flat-out stinks. Turns out, when you lose arguably the best defensive player in the league and Demarcus Lawrence in one offseason, your defense is going to struggle. The other side is that their offense has looked really good, and they’re getting CeeDee Lamb back. I like Dallas to put up a lot of points in this one, and I’m getting 1.5 with them at home.
Atlanta at San Francisco -2.5
Atlanta +2.5
I think we may look back to Week 3 and see the Falcons’ 30-0 loss to the Panthers as that one game that just needs to get flushed away and forgotten. Much like Baltimore losing to the Raiders last year, there always seems to be one game that just makes no sense when it happens and, as the season plays on, makes less and less sense. Aside from that, the 49ers are so banged up, and I think the Falcons’ defense is sneaky okay. I’ll take the good momentum of Atlanta against the bad momentum of San Francisco.
Tampa Bay at Detroit -5.5
Tampa Bay +5.5
I get there are some injuries on the Tampa Bay side of the ball. Detroit feels hot and cold this year. One week they look like world beaters; the next week they lose by multiple scores. I’m just going to ride with Baker right now. With Mike Evans returning this week, that should help with Ebuka looking sidelined. I just think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, and I’m getting the better quarterback and 5.5 points.
Houston at Seattle -3.5
Seattle -3.5
My biggest concern and question here: what’s up with Seattle at home under Mike MacDonald? 4-8 at home and 10-1 on the road? It makes no sense to me. That all being said, Seattle has looked like one of the best teams in the NFC since Week 2. The biggest question with Seattle is how healthy their secondary will be. Missing Witherspoon, Love, and Woolen last week, they were able to escape with a win, but with Houston coming off a bye week, they’ll need those guys back. I think Seattle gets back on track at home, and Darnold stays hot.
Coming off a 6-10 Week 4, we look to get back on track in Week 5 and improve the current season total of 31-32-1!
So what did we learn? I felt coming away from Week 4 so differently than I did after Week 1. Injuries are running wild, especially at the quarterback position. Teams that looked great in the first few weeks are now having the narratives flipped.
Time for concern in Baltimore? Sitting at 1-3 with their lone win against the Browns, the Ravens head into Week 5 without Lamar Jackson. Following an epic collapse in Week 1 against the Bills, in which they led 40-25 deep into the 4th quarter, this offense and Ravens team looked to be the team we have grown used to seeing. But the last two weeks have shown glaring holes on the defensive side of the ball, and without Lamar healthy it concerns me that this team won’t be able to score enough to make up for that.
What happened to Green Bay? Following a 2-0 start where everyone was putting them in the highest tier of teams in the league, Green Bay has looked lost. Coming off a 13-10 choke job against the Browns, you would think this Packers team—and especially the defense—would get back to the team of the first two weeks. But it was the offense that came to play last Sunday night. Dallas and Green Bay ended in a 40-40 tie that leaves you wondering what exactly this Green Bay team is. They have struggled to score in weeks prior. A defense that was staunch through the first few weeks looked lost against a Cowboys team that was missing CeeDee Lamb. After beating the Lions in Week 1, the script of the NFC North already seems to be shifting back to the Lions.
Philly keeps on winning, but it feels a little 2024 “Chiefs-ish.” What I mean by that is we have a 4-0 team with players and personnel that we are familiar with—Pro Bowlers and even future Hall of Famers. The record looks great, but the eye test raises questions. Coming off a dramatic comeback and blocked-kick cover by the Eagles in Week 3, the game script flipped on the Eagles, and after getting out to a strong lead, they almost let the Buccaneers back in one that felt like a comfortable lead midway through the third quarter. The Eagles got out to a weird start last year as well, and you figure they do improve, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on.
San Francisco at Los Angeles (R) -7.5 San Francisco +7.5
Just feels like too many points for a game that, yes, the 49ers are missing a lot of players, but these Thursday night games are always weird. Add on top the familiarity of these division foes and these coaching staffs. Rams probably take this one, but getting over a touchdown in this division game feels like too much.
Minnesota vs. Cleveland +3.5 Minnesota +3.5
London game! After a competitive loss in Dublin against the Steelers, I think the time spent overseas helps this Vikings team against a Browns team sending out rookie quarterback Dillion Gabriel. I’ll say it again: I would stay away from betting any Europe game, as they seem to add a wildcard factor that stateside neutral-field games don’t seem to have. Though I do like the Browns defense against Wentz, I just can’t take a third-round rookie quarterback in his first game—and in London.
Dallas at New York (J) +2.5 New York (J) +2.5
Both of these teams are very flawed. Yes, Dallas just hung with Green Bay at home and New York just gave Miami its first win of the season. But I just don’t trust this Dallas defense on the road at all. Their defense is bad, and the Jets offense has been sneaky putting up points in these losses. I’ll take the extra 2.5 and the home team.
New York (G) at New Orleans -1.5 New York (G) +1.5
Coming off their first win of the season, I think the Giants are able to overcome the devastating Malik Nabers injury and get another one on the road against this Saints team that I will continue to say: show me something before I take you. New Orleans did cover their huge 13.5 line against the Bills last week, but Spencer Rattler didn’t even put up 150 passing yards. This Giants defensive front feels like it is taking form. There will likely be mistakes from this offense and Dart, but I think the Giants leave New Orleans with a victory.
Las Vegas at Indianapolis -6.5 Indianapolis -6.5
Indy is coming off a loss in which, if a walk-in touchdown isn’t fumbled through the end zone and they don’t give up a huge touchdown to Tutu Atwell, we probably get two points added to this line. The Raiders can’t stop anyone on defense right now, and their offense can’t take care of the ball. Add in that Indy is returning home off a loss. I’ll eat the 6.5 and take the Colts to win convincingly.
Miami at Carolina +1.5 Carolina +1.5
Can I just pretend like this game isn’t happening? In a game that feels more important for who has the higher draft pick than playoff chances, I’m just going to roll with the home team getting points. Both of these teams flat out stink. But I don’t think one game for Miami, where they don’t even look good, justifies them being favorites on the road—even against this bad Panthers team.
Denver at Philadelphia -4.5 Philadelphia -4.5
I’ll take Philly here. Denver just hasn’t really impressed me all year, and Nix hasn’t looked great. I don’t love this pick, especially with a banged-up Jalen Carter, but neither side is jumping out to me, so I’ll take the team I think will just win the game outright. And I have a harder time believing the Eagles lose this one at home.
Houston at Baltimore +1.5 Houston -1.5
I don’t love taking Stroud and the Texans as road favorites, but this Ravens team might not be very good. Without Lamar to carry them offensively—especially against a Texans defense that is starting to look like the defense we thought we’d see from them before the season—I think the Texans make Cooper Rush be the one that has to beat them, and I don’t think he gets it done. The Ravens move to 1-4.
Tennessee at Arizona -8.5 Arizona -8.5
Arizona has had one of the easiest schedules to start a season that I can remember in a while, and they still only sit at 2-2. With wins against New Orleans and Carolina, a Mac Jones-led 49ers team, and a home game on a Thursday night, the Cardinals have not been able to take advantage and sit in last in the NFC West. I feel like I’ve said a few times already this year: I’m taking the Cardinals, but I don’t think they’re a playoff team. It’s a lot of points, but Tennessee just looks lost and looks to be in a race against the Saints to see who gets the #1 pick.
Tampa Bay at Seattle -3 Seattle -3
This is probably the best game of the weekend. I like Seattle again, and I’m also betting against a Tampa team that is catching a ton of injuries. Pair those injuries with the fact they just played a slugfest of a game in the Florida heat and now travel as far as they can to play a game on the West Coast against a Seattle team that is coming off extra rest after playing a Thursday night, and I just think it’s a tough one for the Buccaneers. I think Seattle is really putting things together and takes this one at home.
Detroit at Cincinnati +9.5 Detroit -9.5
This line would have to get to 14 before I would flinch at taking the Lions. It’s still a lot of points, but the Lions showed last week their offense can make up for that. My two biggest reasons for taking Detroit and eating the 9.5 are: I think their defensive line is healthy and getting after the quarterback right now, and we’ve seen all season the Bengals’ offensive line is atrocious. The other thing I’m seeing with the Bengals is just quit and letting games get out of hand. This just feels like the season from hell for the Bengals, and I’m going to ride with the Lions this week.
Washington at Los Angeles (C) -2.5 Washington +2.5
It’s looking like we will get the return of Jayden Daniels this week, and I think that makes a huge difference. The Commanders didn’t look bad in his absence, and Mariota really steered the ship well, but there is an obvious gap in offensive explosiveness without Daniels. Pair that with this Chargers team’s injuries on the offensive line, with now Joe Alt missing time, and I just like Washington to win this one outright.
New England at Buffalo -8.5 Buffalo +8.5
New England really put it to Carolina last week, and the Bills looked like they sleepwalked to a victory against the Saints. But I think Buffalo just shows up in this one. 8.5 is a lot to lay in a divisional game against a Mike Vrabel-led team, but I think Buffalo just cruises on offense in this one. I don’t know if I trust Drake Maye and this Patriots offense enough after one big scoring game against a bad Carolina team.
Kansas City at Jacksonville +3 Kansas City -3
Kansas City looked like the Kansas City of old last week in a beatdown of the Ravens. Jacksonville got a surprising road win in San Francisco last week, but their 3-1 record feels pretty empty to me. They are winning the turnover battle like crazy and have won a few games where they just haven’t looked great or played pretty inferior teams. I think KC rides last week’s momentum, kills the Jags’ momentum, and wins pretty comfortably.
A 7-8-1 week brings us to 25-22-1 on the season. What did we learn from Week 3?
What happened to Green Bay looking like world beaters? After a slow offensive start, the Packers looked like they would come away with a win with a 10-0 lead late. I said last week the only way I thought the Browns could stay in the game is by way of turnovers and/or special teams plays, and they were able to get both by way of a terrible Jordan Love interception on their own side of the field and a blocked field goal. I think the Packers defense is still really strong and they right the ship, but what a shock.
Seattle might be for real. After a close loss at home in Week 1 to the 49ers, the Seahawks had a strong win followed by a beat down of the lowly Saints at home. Many wrote the Seahawks off after the QB swap of Geno Smith for Sam Darnold and the loss of DK Metcalf. But Mike MacDonald has this defense looking like one of the league’s best, and Darnold is showing that maybe last year wasn’t an anomaly.
Should we be concerned about the Ravens and Chiefs? Oddly enough, they match up in Week 4 after both sit at 1-2 and have shown serious weakness. Lamar has looked as good as ever, but between odd Derrick Henry fumbles and a defense that is bending and breaking, the Ravens sit 1-2. Luckily for them, the AFC North looks weak, and 10 or 11 wins might be able to take home the division crown. The Chiefs, on the other hand, just feel like they’re missing explosiveness on offense and that their defense has taken a step back, especially their pass rush. They do not have the same luxury of a weak division as the Ravens do, and the Chargers, who have already beat the Chiefs, look like they’ve made a jump.
Seattle at Arizona +1.5 Seattle -1.5
I am really liking the way Seattle’s defense is taking place. The Cardinals have shown a deficiency in moving the ball consistently, and with the loss of James Conner for the season, I think that grows against a good Seahawk defensive line. My Thursday night theory is to compare three things: QB, Coach, and home field advantage in that order. I give the nod to Darnold and MacDonald, and I’m taking Seattle to win on the road.
Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh +2.5 Pittsburgh +2.5
Dublin Game! With a neutral field and odd travel, what should we look for? Coaching? Both coaches are strong. Quarterback play? I would prefer to have 42-year-old Rodgers over Wentz, but I’m not jumping for joy with that. Defense? Minnesota, I feel, has the edge. I don’t have a strong feel for this one, and anytime you get these Europe games I would never bet real money, but I’m going to take the team not playing with a backup quarterback.
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay +3.5 Tampa Bay +3.5
One of my favorite games of the week. Two undefeated teams likely to win their divisions clashing early. Tampa has been in some close battles and is missing Mike Evans, but getting 3.5 points at home against a Philly team that looked lost last week feels like too many points. I liked Tampa in a two-team teaser last week (with Seattle against New Orleans), and it hit. I think Tampa, in part of a two-team teaser (Tampa Bay +9.5), is standing out to me again. I’ll give you another chance to guess the other leg.
New Orleans at Buffalo -15.5 Buffalo -15.5
I will keep saying it until it becomes proven wrong: I’m not betting New Orleans no matter what unless proven otherwise. New Orleans not only suffered from limited quarterback play last week but also committed a litany of dumb penalties and were awful on special teams, leading to a 44-13 loss to Seattle in a game that was done by the middle of the second quarter. Give Josh Allen and company a long week and another road game and cross-country travel to New Orleans, and I see this one getting ugly as well.
Cleveland at Detroit -9.5 Detroit -9.5
Cleveland was another team I was not willing to pick unless otherwise shown. After a shocking victory against the Packers, the Browns are up against another strong NFC North team. Though I think Cleveland’s defense is for real, their offense is sputtering at best. The Lions offense has looked strong the last two weeks after a bad start in Week 1. I think the Lions continue to put points on the board and eventually break this one open.
Tennessee at Houston -7.5 Tennessee +7.5
I have been wrong on Tennessee the last few weeks. But again, this number feels too big for me. Houston has had huge offensive line issues, and I think this is one area Tennessee can hurt a team. Houston has just not shown me anything to be impressed by this year. I think this game looks similar to the Houston and Jacksonville game last week and is a low-scoring affair. I’ll take the 7.5 and the Titans.
Los Angeles (C) at New York (G) +6.5 Los Angeles (C) +6.5
Did you pick the Chargers as leg two of the teaser with Tampa? I just don’t see how the Chargers lose this game. The Chargers defense has looked strong these first three weeks, and they are going to get Jackson Dart in his first career start. I think the Chargers defense and Herbert are just too much for a bad Giants team.
Washington at Atlanta -2.5 Washington +2.5
Washington is without Jayden Daniels for a second week, and I just don’t see it being an issue here. Mariota was able to help the Commanders to an easy victory against the Raiders last week, and I see this week playing out similarly. Atlanta just seems like such a wild card of what you’re going to get, but after an embarrassing 30-0 loss against the Panthers and their lone victory against a JJ McCarthy-led Vikings team, I just need to see a little more from the Falcons before I’m picking them against a good team.
Carolina at New England -5.5 New England -5.5
Carolina got their first win of the year and shut out a Falcons team after looking lost on defense the first two weeks. New England is coming off a loss that was, in large part, due to more fumbling problems from Rhamondre Stevenson. I think both of those things return to the mean, and the Panthers defense goes back to its struggles, and New England cleans things up. I like New England at home here, despite the line being a little higher than I’d like.
Indianapolis at Los Angeles (R) -3.5 Los Angeles -3.5
First real road test for this Colts team that has looked very impressive on the offensive side of the ball so far. Los Angeles blew a large lead in Philadelphia last week, but they showed me enough to know that Stafford still has it, this defense is frisky, and Sean McVay may be the best coach in the NFL. I think the Rams give the Colts their first loss of the season in one of the best matchups of the season.
Jacksonville at San Francisco -3.5 San Francisco -3.5
Sitting at 3-0, the 49ers get Brock Purdy back against a Jacksonville team that is one of the hardest to figure out. San Francisco has done just enough to win with his absence. Can they avoid the injury bug for the rest of this season in what’s shaping up to be a competitive NFC West? I like the return of Purdy and the 49ers at home against a Jacksonville offense that I still just don’t trust.
Baltimore at Kansas City +2.5 Baltimore -2.5
Baltimore and Kansas City are both 1-2? I still think both of these teams find a way to make it to postseason play, but both clearly have deficiencies. I do worry about the Ravens defense, but I think this Chiefs team, until Rashee Rice returns, lacks the explosive plays to expose what Detroit and Buffalo were able to do in the first few games of the season. Feels like a toss-up to me, but one of these teams coming out of this week 1-3 is going to look very weird in the standings after Sunday.
Chicago at Las Vegas -1.5 Las Vegas -1.5
I think Pete and Geno get their first win of the season. The Bears looked good last week against the Cowboys, and there is definitely a little bit of life from that offense. I just think this is the game the Raiders are able to get Jeanty going and get their first win of the season. I like that I’m only laying 1.5 at home for a game that feels like very comparable teams.
Green Bay at Dallas +6.5 Green Bay -6.5
I don’t know what happened to the Packers offense last week, but I’m going to chalk it up to the Browns defense actually being strong. I think this Packers defense is really good, and maybe that embarrassing loss last week motivates the rest of the squad for Micah’s return to Dallas. I think the Packers bounce back on offense against a bad Cowboys defense, and Micah gets his revenge in a blowout against the Cowboys.
New York (J) at Miami -2.5 New York (J) +2.5
Miami was able to keep it competitive against the Bills last Thursday, but that close game isn’t going to sway me away from the fact this team just feels like a ticking time bomb waiting to explode and be in the running for the first pick in the draft. The Jets will get back Justin Fields this week, and I think they are able to keep the offense continuing to go and get the win on the road in South Beach.
Cincinnati at Denver -7.5 Denver -7.5
I’m going to keep it simple here: I’m not betting Cincinnati unless they show me they can do anything without Joe Burrow. You add on back-to-back road games and going against a well-coached Broncos team sitting at 1-2, I think this could be another long week for the Bengals.
Running behind this week in the middle of a move. Be sure to follow our Twitter @ThePSSports for our picks. Unfortunately we took the Bills at home -11.5 and it was part of our Super 5 for this week.Coming off a 10-6 Week 2 and a season record of 18-15, here are some takeaways from last week moving into Week 3!
The Bears are who we thought they were! Coming into this year, I thought the Bears would be overmatched by their divisional counterparts. Maybe if they found themselves in a weak division like the AFC South, they could find a way to manufacture more wins, but after two losses against NFC North foes, the Bears already find themselves in an uphill battle to make the playoffs.
Green Bay continues to shine. It’s been eight quarters of control for the Packers this season, and against two teams that might actually be pretty good. Green Bay continues to look like the class of the NFC, and going into a road game against a Cleveland team that just came off a loss against a physical Baltimore team, I think it’s safe to assume Green Bay starts 3-0.
Can Kansas City miss the playoffs? My answer right now is I don’t think they will miss the playoffs. This felt like a season where they may have to ride out some time until the return of Rashee Rice from suspension. But the team from last year that eked out these close wins might have finally caught the regression bug.
Las Vegas at Washington -3 Washington -3
No Jayden Daniels, some problems, but not enough to sway me away. Short week on the road for Las Vegas and extra time to prepare for Washington. The loss of Daniels is obviously enormous, but I think this is a tough schedule play for the Raiders and a good enough veteran in Mariota to take this one by more than three at home.
Atlanta at Carolina +5.5 Atlanta -5.5
Would this line be higher if Carolina didn’t make that game close against Arizona? Carolina was getting hammered by an Arizona team that I still don’t think is very good despite the 2-0 record. Bryce and the gang cut it down to a single-score game, but what has Carolina shown on either side of the ball that you like? I think Penix and Robinson tear apart this bad Carolina defense, and a sneaky “are they good?” defense in Atlanta suffocates an offense that has looked bad seven of the eight quarters they’ve played.
Green Bay at Cleveland +7.5 Green Bay -7.5
K.I.S.S.—Keep It Simple, Stupid. Green Bay is a very good football team, and Cleveland is a very bad football team. Unless there is a weird turnover battle won by Cleveland or a crazy special teams play, I don’t see how Green Bay doesn’t come out of Cleveland with a win and likely a win by multiple scores. I said in our first week’s post that Cleveland and New Orleans I don’t want to bet on unless proven otherwise. I’m not betting Cleveland any week until I’m shown something I did not see in Weeks 1 and 2.
Pittsburgh at New England +1.5 Pittsburgh -1.5
One of the harder games of the week for me to pick. Seattle showed that if you can get pressure on Rodgers, the age will show. But New England doesn’t have the defensive line talent that Seattle does. I’m leaning Pittsburgh even as a road favorite, as I just don’t think New England’s defense can do enough to slow down the Steelers.
Los Angeles (R) at Philadelphia -3.5 Philadelphia -3.5
Philly is feeling a little bit like Kansas City did last year. They don’t always look great from start to finish of the game, but a strong infrastructure is leading to wins. I think the Eagles are still really talented and one of the four best teams in the league. The Rams may be 2-0, but with wins against Houston and Tennessee, I think that record is a little deceiving. People seem to remember how close the playoff game against Philly was last year but forget Saquon ran for 255 yards against the Rams. I think Philly is able to control the trenches and takes this one at home.
Indianapolis at Tennessee +4.5 Tennessee +4.5
Two teams that, at a glance, you think are really far apart, but I just don’t think so. I think a lot of these AFC South games end up being pretty competitive, and the Colts are giving me flashbacks of last year’s Saints team that went 2-0 to start. I just think the Titans’ defense getting 4.5 points at home against Daniel Jones is too many, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tennessee wins the game outright.
New York (J) at Tampa Bay -6.5 Tampa Bay -6.5
No Justin Fields? Wouldn’t matter—the Jets have a lot of problems. Tyrod Taylor will start for a banged-up Jets team that looked really bad against a Bills defense that is just mediocre. Tampa has found themselves at 2-0 despite playing both games on the road. I think the Buccaneers are sneakily the third-best team in the NFC right now, and I think they put the league on watch in their first home game. I will also say at -6.5 this is the first leg of a two-team teaser that I really like this week. Can you guess who the second team will be?
Cincinnati at Minnesota Cincinnati +3
A battle of backups! Browning vs. Wentz was not the matchup anyone was hoping for, but what does that mean when trying to pick against the line? Browning has shown he can fill Burrow’s shoes in seasons past but also turned the ball over a few times against a not-great Jacksonville defense. Wentz is a huge question mark. He’s frankly not been impressive when playing, plus the loss of Aaron Jones. There is just too much unknown with Wentz. I’m going to take the Bengals and the points, but if you bet real money on this game, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Houston at Jacksonville -1.5 Jacksonville -1.5
Neither of these football teams are good. But I’m getting Jacksonville at home and only have to lay 1.5 points. CJ Stroud looks nowhere near the quarterback he was during his rookie campaign. It’s starting to really raise questions for me, but it still feels like the betting market hasn’t accepted that he’s diminished right now. I don’t think Jacksonville will control the game, but if I only have to give 1.5 points up in a divisional game with two evenly matched teams, I’ll take the home team.
New Orleans at Seattle -7.5 Seattle -7.5
If you guessed Seattle as the second team in that teaser, you win! I really like Seattle here, and apparently so did bettors, as the line has jumped a full point this week. First road game for the Saints and Spencer Rattler this week against a Seahawks team that looked good in Week 2. I said I wouldn’t bet the Saints until I’m shown something to change that, and Week 2 I went against my better judgment. Not this week! I love Seattle here.
Denver at Los Angeles (C) -3 Los Angeles -3
The only concern here for the Chargers was their inability to just put the nail in the coffin last week against the Raiders. The Chargers have looked strong to start the season, and Herbert is really looking like he wants to join the elite class of QBs. I very much dislike Sean Payton, but the Broncos got screwed last weekend in Indianapolis. I think this is one of the best games of the week. I’m going to take Herbert at home if I only have to give up three points against every team in the AFC outside of Buffalo and Baltimore.
Arizona at San Francisco -2.5 San Francisco -2.5
I’m going to preface this by saying I don’t think either of the teams are very good. Arizona is 2-0, but with wins over Carolina and New Orleans, I think they may be in for a rude awakening. San Francisco at full strength is a good football team, but they just haven’t been able to do that for a while. I think San Francisco gets the job done at home and moves to 3-0, but unless they get healthy, I don’t think winning games is sustainable.
Dallas at Chicago +1.5 Chicago +1.5
I started this week’s post by saying the Bears are off to a bad start. The Cowboys-Giants game might have been a fun watch, but I came away from that game with real questions about the Cowboys’ defense. You gave up 400+ passing yards to this version of Russell Wilson? I think Chicago gets one in the win column this week.
Kansas City at New York (G) +5.5 Kansas City -5.5
I’ll start by saying there is no way the Chiefs start 0-3 with a loss to this Giants team. Patrick Mahomes does not look like the quarterback we saw for his first few seasons, and Kelce is not the same athlete either, but the Chiefs know how to win football games, and this Giants team flat out doesn’t. I think the Chiefs get back on track against a bad Giants team.
Detroit at Baltimore -5.5 Baltimore -5.5
Detroit’s offense looked back on track against Chicago last week after a bad Week 1 performance against Green Bay. That is all fine, but I think Baltimore is just a whole other tier above Detroit, and the line shows that. I see this as a high-scoring affair but don’t see how the Lions keep up with their defense. I think Lamar and Henry break off a few big runs late in this one and seal a comfortable victory for the Ravens.
An even week in our picks last week, landing us at 8-8. Here are a few things that stuck out to me after Week 1!
Green Bay looks like the team to beat in the NFC. A strong performance over the Lions from start to finish and on both sides of the ball leads me to believe, at least for now, that Green Bay is the class of the NFC. We’ll see this Thursday night against a strong Washington team.
The Chargers didn’t seem to skip a beat without Rashawn Slater. They are in a fortunate position to still have an elite tackle in Joe Alt, but the Chargers seemed unfazed by the Chiefs without their star tackle. I will caveat this by saying this was a game in Brazil and to start a season. But the Chiefs defense is really what Kansas City rode to get to the Super Bowl last year, and the Chargers and Herbert sliced right through it.
Is Caleb Williams going to be the worst quarterback of that draft class? The jury is still out, and it’s still very early on all of these guys, but a late-game comeback led by JJ McCarthy in his first start has you wondering if the once super highly touted QB is going to fall behind the rest of his class.
Washington at Green Bay -3.5 Green Bay -3.5
Like I mentioned, I think Green Bay is the class of the NFC. You’ll find me saying this about every Thursday night game: I look at three things—QB, Head Coach, and home field, in that order. QB does go to the Commanders, but Jordan Love is still a fringe top-10 QB, so the gap there is smaller. Head Coach, I give the nod to LaFleur, and the Packers are home (back-to-back home games as well). I’ll take the Packers and eat the points in this matchup.
Cleveland at Baltimore -11.5 Baltimore -11.5
Baltimore looked like they were in a class of their own for 57 minutes last Sunday night. A debacle of a collapse against Josh Allen and the Bills shouldn’t take away that this offense is going to be a problem this year. Cleveland hung around with Cincinnati, but I don’t think they can hang points with the Ravens. I think the Ravens go home with a bitter taste in their mouth and put a beatdown on their divisional foe.
Los Angeles (R) at Tennessee +5.5 Tennessee +5.5
This is one of those picks that really makes you worry because the Titans’ offense did not look great last week. But let’s put things into perspective: it was on the road in Denver, Denver is a top-5, if not the best, defense in the league, and it was Cam Ward’s first start. This Rams team looked decent against the Texans but only managed to score 14 points at home. This Titans defense is good. I don’t know if they will win the game, but I think they have a chance and will at least keep it close at home.
Chicago at Detroit -6.5 Chicago +6.5
I know, I even wrote earlier about Caleb Williams and there being question marks there. But what did Detroit show last week that they should be almost a full touchdown favorite in a divisional game? The Bears faltered at the end against Minnesota, but this is a divisional game, and most importantly, the coaching matchup I think plays a part. Ben Johnson knows all things Detroit and Jared Goff. I think the Bears will have a game plan ready to slow down the Lions’ offense and make this a competitive game. Give me the points and Ben Johnson.
Buffalo at New York (J) +6.5 Buffalo -6.5
The Jets-Steelers game last week had to be one of the biggest head-scratchers of the week. The Jets ultimately lose a close, high-scoring game? I liked what I saw from Fields, but the Jets defense, which I thought was a strong point, gave up a lot to a 42-year-old quarterback last week. I think Buffalo shreds these guys early and makes the Jets have to play from behind, which has always been a weak point for Justin Fields–led offenses. I’m riding the better team and eating the -6.5.
New York (G) at Dallas -5.5 Dallas -5.5
I will say this: I don’t think Dallas is that good. But with Wilson at the helm at QB for the Giants, I just can’t take them if I’m not getting more than a touchdown. I think Dak showed he can move the ball against a good defense, and Wilson showed me that he can’t move the ball much at all right now. I think Dallas wins this one and is able to cover the 5.5.
San Francisco at New Orleans +4.5 New Orleans +4.5
I really don’t want to be on the New Orleans side of any bet this year. I said it Week 1: I’m not betting on your team unless you prove to me otherwise, Saints. The Saints did not show me that they should be the team to take. The reason I’m flipping is obvious: the 49ers already caught the injury bug. No Purdy and no Kittle for this one. New Orleans hung around enough that I don’t think they should be 4.5-point dogs at home to Mac Jones. I begrudgingly am picking New Orleans. Prove me right, Spencer!
New England at Miami -1.5 New England +1.5
Miami stinks. The Patriots have historically not played well in these early-season road games against Miami. But the weather might actually play in their favor this week. With a cloudy 84-degree forecast, the heat won’t be playing a factor. I think this is just a lost year in Miami, and I don’t think the lines have adjusted enough. I’ll take the extra 1.5 and take New England this week.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati -3.5 Cincinnati -3.5
The Bengals looked awful in Week 1 against the Browns, essentially not even moving the ball the entire second half against Cleveland. I think they’re just thankful to finally get a Week 1 win after losing their last three season openers. I think they get back on track here against a Jacksonville team that played well against a bad Panthers defense.
Seattle at Pittsburgh -2.5 Seattle +2.5
Pittsburgh gave up points in droves last week against New York. Seattle couldn’t find a rhythm offensively against San Francisco. The question in this game is, what stays the same? Does Seattle’s defense look good again, or does the Pittsburgh offense put up points again? I think this Seattle defense gets after Rodgers and sneaks one out on the road.
Denver at Indianapolis +2.5 Denver -2.5
This is one I’ve flipped back and forth on. I landed on Denver -2.5 for a few reasons: Denver is good defensively, and I think that shows up again against the Colts. Daniel Jones is still the quarterback for the Colts. I know their offense looked great against the Dolphins, but I think a lot of quarterbacks are going to look good against Miami. We saw last year in New Orleans that an offense can look great early against bad defenses; Denver is a great defense. I just think that wins out and Denver wins this one on the road.
Carolina at Arizona -6.5 Arizona -6.5
Just like I said last week picking Arizona with a bigger line, it’s more a pick against the team they’re playing than admiration for the Cardinals. Carolina really looks like they’re going to struggle to stop teams running the ball. I expect the Cardinals to run the ball and take advantage against a bad Panthers defense and make Bryce Young have to win the game through the air. Cardinals start the season 2-0.
Philadelphia at Kansas City +1.5 Philadelphia -1.5
The Chiefs just don’t scare anyone—and clearly not Vegas. Home dogs? Maybe this is the wake-up call and motivation they need, but we saw just last February how far apart these teams are. But no Rashee Rice and no Xavier Worthy limits the Chiefs moving down the field. I think the Chiefs struggle in this one and start the season 0-2.
Atlanta at Minnesota -3.5 Atlanta +3.5
I’m pretty excited for this one. Atlanta lost a game they should’ve won by way of the kicker. The Vikings looked bad for three quarters and came back to beat the Bears. Really, I just like Penix more than McCarthy. These are both flawed teams that can look good in stretches, but we’re still indoors, and I think the Falcons’ offense is just better than Minnesota’s, and I’m getting 3.5 points.
Tampa Bay at Houston -2.5 Tampa Bay +2.5
I think I’m just getting the better team and points. I’m starting to worry about CJ Stroud and the Texans’ offense. A poor performance to start the year in LA, and now going up against just a real professional football team in Tampa. I think Tampa just wins this game, and questions start swirling in Houston.
Los Angeles (C) at Las Vegas +3 Los Angeles (C) -3
Extra time to prepare and short travel make this road game feel a little less daunting for the Chargers. I really like what I saw from Herbert, and I think this Raiders defense isn’t that good. I think the Chargers might be on to something this season and take one on the road from their divisional rival. Also, Raiders-Chargers on Monday night just feels so right.
PostScript Sports 